Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning February 12
Indicator
|
Weekly
Level / Change
|
Implication
for
S
& P 500
|
Implication
for Nifty*
|
S
& P 500
|
2620, -5.16%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Nifty
|
10455, -2.84%
|
Neutral
**
|
Bearish
|
China
Shanghai Index
|
3130, -9.60%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Gold
|
1316, -1.62%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
WTIC
Crude
|
59.20, -9.55%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Copper
|
3.03, -4.83%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Baltic
Dry Index
|
1106, -0.72%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Euro
|
1.2252, -1.66%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Dollar/Yen
|
108.78, -1.26%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Dow
Transports
|
10137, -5.15%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
High
Yield (ETF)
|
35.68, -1.63%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
US
10 year Bond Yield
|
2.83%, -0.88%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Nyse
Summation Index
|
-55, -114.29%
|
Bearish
|
Neutral
|
US
Vix
|
29.06, 67.88%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Skew
|
129
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
20
DMA, S and P 500
|
2775, Below
|
Bearish
|
Neutral
|
50
DMA, S and P 500
|
2719, Below
|
Bearish
|
Neutral
|
200
DMA, S and P 500
|
2539, Above
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
20
DMA, Nifty
|
10824, Below
|
Neutral
|
Bearish
|
50
DMA, Nifty
|
10562, Below
|
Neutral
|
Bearish
|
200
DMA, Nifty
|
10047, Above
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
India
Vix
|
19.23, 26.10%
|
Neutral
|
Bearish
|
Dollar/Rupee
|
64.23, 0.00%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
Overall
|
S
& P 500
|
Nifty
|
|
Bullish
Indications
|
2
|
2
|
|
Bearish
Indications
|
14
|
15
|
|
Outlook
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
|
Observation
|
The
S and P 500 and the Nifty fell sharply last week. Indicators are bearish.
The
markets have made important tops. Time to watch those stops.
|
|
|
On
the Horizon
|
Japan – GDP, Australia – Employment data, Euro Zone – German GDP, CPI, UK – CPI, Retail sales, U.S – CPI, Retail sales, Oil
inventories, PPI
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
*Nifty
|
India’s
Benchmark Stock Market Index
|
|
|
Raw
Data
|
Courtesy
Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
|
|
|
**Neutral
|
Changes less than 0.5% are considered
neutral
|
|
|

The S and
P 500 and the Nifty fell sharply for the second week in a row. Signals are bearish
for the upcoming week. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced
in fully and sentiment indicators are back in complacency mode. The markets are
still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from
which corrections usually result. Divergences in high yield, transports and
surging bond yields are flashing warning signs. An interest rate shock can’t be
ruled out. Indian market volatility is only 70% of US market volatility so
there is complacency and some catch up left on the down side. The critical
levels to watch are 2630 (up) and 2610(down) on the S & P and 10550 (up)
and 10350 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could
trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last
week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.
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